The Dow Jones Industrial Average started trading more than 125 years ago and yesterday it closed above 36,000 for the first time ever. Along the way, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (small caps) all closed at new all-time highs as well.
“We understand all of the worries. Labor shortages, inflation, the pandemic, the Fed, Washington drama, supply chain bottlenecks, and a slowing economy,” explained LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the other side of the coin is earnings have been really good and the stock market is looking forward to better times, not looking in the rearview mirror at the bad news.”
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Dow has hit five separate 1,000 level milestones in 2021, the most ever. Yes, the percentage between each level gets smaller higher you go, but this is still an amazing feat.
What now? Well, the bull market looks poised to continue its run. In fact, when the S&P 500 is up more than 20% for the year heading into the seasonally bullish month of November, stocks have never been lower—higher all eight times. The returns get better as well, up 3.7% versus the average November return of 1.7%. Not to be outdone, the final two months of the year have been higher all eight times as well, up 6.2% versus the average final two months return of 3.2%.
We’re thankful for the strong stock market performance this year, but there may be more to come before year-end. We continue to expect stocks to outperform bonds and maintain our overweight to equities.